Today we observe that the Euribor has almost halved from its peak levels in October 2023, alongside the decline in official interest rates. Market expectations are that official interest rates will continue to fall.
International trade tensions make it difficult to be more certain about inflation’s behaviour in the near future. This has translated into relative stability in the Euribor, with the peculiarity that it is at its lowest levels since October 2022.
We are facing very favourable financing conditions, but with differing effects across the various euro area countries.
According to the ECB’s latest bank lending survey for businesses, across the euro area there has been a significant tightening of credit standards, due to uncertainty in France and Germany. It is true that conditions have remained stable, improving thanks to low interest rates, but in a context of weak demand for financing and subdued productive investment.
In Spain, the situation is quite different, with financing criteria also stable, but lending conditions improving thanks to low interest rates—among the lowest in the area—and rising demand. This includes an upturn in capital investment needs and less reliance on internal financing by companies.
Forward-looking inflation data will shape the ECB’s decisions in the coming months. However, both companies and households in Spain are starting from a stronger position, as they have more accessible financing options, at better prices and on better terms, than our European neighbours.
José Luis Martínez Campuzano, Spokesperson for the Spanish Banking Association
