The International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates that the global economy contracted by 3.5% in 2020. This is the largest decline in recent history, although almost one percentage point less than initially forecast. These figures reflect the severe economic blow that the health crisis has dealt to all countries. But they also show how difficult it is to make forecasts in an environment like the current one, marked by high uncertainty and with no historical precedent.
We are talking about a global economic downturn, although with an uneven final impact across countries. This has been due mainly to three factors: the different lockdown measures imposed to reduce the risk of contagion; the productive structure and the ability to access remote working and digital services; and the economic policy measures implemented to replace lost income and to support the productive fabric. These are the same factors affecting the desired recovery, which is contingent on the success of vaccines and health management against the virus.
The IMF projects global growth of 5.5% for 2021, almost half a percentage point above what was previously forecast. International cooperation has been key to defeating the virus and will also be essential to drive growth. In Europe, we have the European funds, whose efficient use will be crucial to ensuring that the economic recovery is based on a more sustainable and digital growth model. However, it is important that each country complements the injection of these funds with reforms that correct excesses and shortcomings inherited from the past that could weigh on the recovery. It is also essential that the new measures adopted do not create new risks that do not currently exist.
José Luis Martínez Campuzano, spokesperson for the Spanish Banking Association
