Three quarters of the year having passed, the problems with which the year began remain in place. In Europe, the strain caused by the refugee crisis, the uncertainty following the outcome of the referendum in which the British voted to leave the European Union, and the lack of robust economic growth continue to be a source of concern. Likewise, geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East and the terrorist threat in Europe have highlighted the vulnerability of our societies to the rise of fundamentalism. The rest of the world is still watching the elections in the United States and the impact of the likely normalization of monetary policy in that country, as well as China’s trajectory and its consequent impact on emerging markets, especially in Latin America.
In this context, the International Monetary Fund’s July estimates (and probably those to be published in early October) do not help to inspire optimism: for the fifth consecutive time in the last twelve months, the IMF has again lowered its growth forecasts for the global economy. In short, the global economy is drifting, battered by a crisis of confidence for which there do not appear to be any short-term political solutions.
In such a complex environment, a group of economists led by Michel Camdessus and Harinder Kohli have dared to look to the future and, with a very objective vision free of political bias, have identified ten global trends that will inexorably shape the future of our countries in the coming years. Demographics, urbanization, climate change, the scarcity of natural resources, the momentum of a new middle class and the greater weight of emerging economies are trends widely recognized by most analysts. This set of forces contrasts with other more distinctive ones, such as digital disruption and connectivity, and the resurgence of violent actors with no affiliation to a specific state. They also highlight the continued momentum of globalization and the disappearance of borders between financial markets—elements that some analysts, led by Martin Wolf, have recently been questioning in light of the socioeconomic consequences of the crisis that began in 2008 and the stagnation of global trade.
