The European Commission has just raised its growth forecast for the eurozone by three tenths of a percentage point to 1.3%. The improvement has been widespread, but in Spain’s case, the resulting figure is almost three times higher, reaching 2.9%. Spain is also one of the few countries that see an improvement in the forecasts for 2026, with growth of 2.3% compared to 1.2% for the entire area.
These are good tidings for short-term growth. However, they do not resolve the uncertainties regarding its medium and long-term sustainability. We are growing more than our partners, yes; but we are also less productive. And productivity is key, not only for economic competitiveness but also for social well-being.
Because productivity, as the relationship between output and employment, is synonymous with efficiency and profitability. And it is fundamental for boosting investment and wages. The strong performance of employment underlies the greater growth of recent years. However, this has not been accompanied by an improvement in productivity, which remains below pre-pandemic levels.
The productivity gap with Europe may be due to several factors. A deficit in specific training, adapted to the needs of businesses, and low levels of investment, especially in new technologies, are sometimes cited. The IMF also alludes to economic and regulatory uncertainty, and low expected profitability. For the Bank of Spain, there is an additional, not insignificant factor: the relatively smaller size of our business fabric.
The strength of growth in Spain, compared to our European partners, should not lead to complacency but rather motivate us to consolidate it. Favorable financing conditions provide a solid foundation upon which to take measures that strengthen economic growth and make it sustainable over time. Greater and better growth. And productivity will be key to achieving it.
José Luis Martínez Campuzano, Spokesperson for the Spanish Banking Association
