No, I am not an expert in the Chinese horoscope. In fact, I decided to give this short opinion piece that title after an exhaustive search for a heading with a positive underlying message. This is always necessary, but even more so now, given the importance of the unresolved issues we have on the table at this time worldwide. And repeating the title chosen by the IMF for its annual report did not seem very appropriate. Nor does it seem particularly accurate to me.
The supranational institution titled its January update of economic forecasts as “the changing landscape of the global economy.” Yes, without a doubt, the Red Fire Rooster is better. Those who know say that Rooster Years are times of justice, great things, and efficiency. And fire always brings warmth. Without a doubt, we need all of this. We need new ideas in finance; greater clarity and certainty about the economic outlook; hope that things will improve politically. And we especially need greater international coordination to face all the challenges that arise in these areas. It is not easy, but I sincerely believe it is possible.
Earlier I referred to our need for greater certainty about the future. Perhaps this is why the IMF speaks of a “changing” scenario, although in the short term it is optimistic about the evolution of global growth. Let us allow the IMF to say it directly: “following the lackluster outcome in 2016, projections point to a pickup in economic activity in 2017 and 2018, especially in emerging market and developing economies… However, there is a wide dispersion of possible outcomes around the projections, given the uncertainty surrounding the policy direction of the incoming U.S. administration and its international ramifications.”
