We have once again had the previous impression following the publication of the latest non-performing loan data from Spanish deposit institutions. It is worth recalling at this point how the ECB itself, in the latest minutes of its July monetary policy meeting, also referred to non-performing loans in European banking.
However, in this case, it emphasized the improvement in bank lending while expressing concern about the deterioration of the sector’s stock prices. Could the distrust of financial investors not be related to the negative bias I referred to at the beginning? Money is timid. And distrustful.
But let’s talk about the non-performing loan figures for Spanish banking. Yes, 118 billion euros in June is still a significant figure. But isn’t it much more significant that non-performing loans are falling at an annual rate of 18%? Isn’t it also the lowest figure since 2010? As stated: it could always be adjusted to a faster rate of decline and a lower absolute figure. However, would this effort be compatible with the sharp increase now seen in new loans to SMEs and households? I don’t think so. Not to mention the difficult environment for generating results, with negative official interest rates on deposits, seemingly endless regulatory changes, and increasing non-bank competition.
Incidentally, the latter is favored by exceptional monetary measures from the ECB and by regulatory and supervisory levels that are, in principle, more lenient than those applied to deposit institutions themselves.
