And I am thinking about potential impacts in terms of their duration and magnitude. For example, an exogenous factor such as the evolution of energy prices. Or structural reforms, accompanied by greater economic flexibility. Public investment in infrastructure is also clearly relevant. Naturally, I do not overlook exchange rate developments.
Anything else? The most important of all, in my view: financial conditions. In fact, I will tell you that, little by little, we have all come to accept—through both joys and disappointments—that the credit cycle is a determining factor in the economic cycle. And if you are still not entirely clear on this, consider the substantial size reached by debt and its counterpart in the case of the oversized (in relative terms to the size of global GDP) international financial markets.
