It is clear that markets are driven by expectations, attempting to price future events. Naturally, this is done with the best and most comprehensive information available. And here lies the first negative factor for the sector: there is insufficient information, with this lack often depending on future decisions by authorities, such as those related to the regulatory framework and monetary policy.
Furthermore, discussing the future evolution of the banking sector has become a common debate, mixing economic forecasts with potential model change strategies to adapt to new non-banking competitors. Too much debate. In fact, it is now common to hear recommendations as seemingly contradictory as advocating for greater consolidation of the European sector while simultaneously proposing limits on the size of entities to reduce potential risks. In my opinion, completing the European Banking Union requires creating a common deposit guarantee mechanism within the context of forming European financial entities. However, the existence of domestic or European business niches for smaller entities cannot be ruled out. Thus, the desired increase in efficiency (and results) would not only involve economies of scale by adjusting costs but also by investing proactively to meet future customer service demands.
Read the spokesperson’s article in La Vanguardia
