Within the framework of a global economy growing above the historical average and in a synchronized manner across different regions of the world, the Spanish economy still benefits from the momentum generated by three fundamental elements: labor reform, the restructuring of the financial system, and the deleveraging of the private sector. These three factors have created conditions under which economic growth in Spain appears immune to the most adverse events. In fact, during 2016 and contrary to all forecasts, the Spanish economy recorded a growth rate of 3.3% despite the fact that a significant part of the year elapsed without a Government to guide our country’s policies. <\/p>\n
The year 2017 began with the highest degree of uncertainty in recent years due to the election of President Trump in the United States and the United Kingdom’s decision to leave the European Union, and closed with an increase in oil prices and the unfortunate independence process in Catalonia. Despite everything, the Spanish economy once again recorded GDP growth of 3.1%, a dynamism that continues to translate into job creation: since 2013, when the highest unemployment levels were reached, 1.7 million jobs have been created and total employment has returned to the same levels as in 2009. The strength of economic growth, the moderate increase in consumer prices, and the measures taken by the Government converged to bring the public deficit down to 3%, one tenth less than forecast, placing Spain at the exit door of the excessive deficit procedure. A scenario compatible with a current account surplus. <\/p>\n
For this year, the FUNCAS consensus on GDP growth in Spain is adjusting very rapidly from an initial level below 2.5% toward a figure that is once again in the 3% range, meaning the Spanish economy would be demonstrating, for the fourth consecutive year, solid economic growth above the eurozone average. And this, despite coexisting with certain challenges that, under other conditions, could weaken economic confidence. Perhaps the most significant challenges are the difficulty in approving the 2018 Budget and the paralysis of the reform process (especially those affecting the public pension system or education), but we cannot ignore the increase in social inequality in our country, which the European Commission has highlighted with particular emphasis. Unemployment, the financial hardships of the most impoverished families, and the decline in household income are indicators of a serious social deficit. Despite everything, if the European economy continues to grow above its potential, it is likely that the boost from the external sector will once again generate Spanish GDP growth above 2.5% in 2019. <\/p>\n
Juan Carlos Delrieu, Director of Strategic Planning<\/p>\n