{"id":38444,"date":"2021-09-24T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2021-09-23T22:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/aebanca.es\/actualidad\/te-interesa\/articulos\/avoid-creating-uncertainty\/"},"modified":"2026-04-09T12:44:39","modified_gmt":"2026-04-09T10:44:39","slug":"avoid-creating-uncertainty","status":"publish","type":"articulos","link":"https:\/\/aebanca.es\/en\/actualidad\/te-interesa\/articulos\/avoid-creating-uncertainty\/","title":{"rendered":"Avoid creating uncertainty"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>In August, the European Central Bank (ECB) defended the effectiveness of its communication policy as a stabilising factor in the face of the uncertainty generated by inflation. In its working paper, it argued that it also influences deviations in analysts\u2019 expectations. The ECB\u2019s &#8220;forward guidance&#8221; has thus become another element of unconventional monetary policy in an exceptional situation, adding to the rest of the extreme measures developed since the start of the health crisis. Monetary policy had ample room for manoeuvre to ensure financial stability in an environment of low structural inflation. And central banks used it, as we saw during the Great Recession. During the pandemic, and without monetary policy measures having returned to normal, these measures were reinforced even further, with zero or negative official interest rates and new unorthodox measures, such as asset purchases in the markets. The situation was so exceptional that it required a combination of expansionary policies, both monetary and fiscal, and the collaboration of the private sector for their implementation, as banks have done to ensure that the measures reached households and businesses.      <\/p>\n<p>The rebound in inflation we have seen since the beginning of the year has generated an interesting debate about its future path and, therefore, about the direction of monetary policy, with no apparent cost in terms of financial instability or higher risk premia in the markets. In contrast to the position of central banks, which argue that the rise in inflation is temporary as a result of the rapid recovery in demand and production bottlenecks, there are those who believe that rising prices may be the trigger for a sustained upturn in inflation after the strong monetary expansion accumulated over the past two decades. <\/p>\n<p>If anything defines the success of monetary policy, it is precisely that it is predictable. And greater communication efforts by central banks undoubtedly help. But what happens if monetary authorities are wrong in their expectations? It is very likely that this is their worst nightmare at the moment, when the core of their messages is that all additional measures that may be necessary will be taken, which penalises savers and dampens investors\u2019 perception of risk. Communication is important to anchor analysts\u2019 expectations and counter potential instability, but it must also incorporate new data as it emerges, even if it may call it into question.    <\/p>\n<p>A track record of success in managing monetary policy does not justify forcing short-term financial stability, which could put it at risk in the future. Financial stability is key to macroeconomic stability, so it is necessary to set the limits of monetary policy and ensure that the combination with the rest of policies\u2014from fiscal policy to supply-side measures\u2014is truly effective. Failing to do so would lead to economic imbalances and greater financial risks. Ultimately, monetary policy should not create more problems tomorrow than it is trying to combat today.   <\/p>\n<p>If most developed economies can recover pre-pandemic output levels next year and we gradually adapt and bring the pandemic under control, why not reconsider the gradual withdrawal of some of the most exceptional expansionary measures? Many stakeholders expect central banks to do so from now on. The key in this case is to see whether monetary authorities take the next step towards adopting a neutral bias and acknowledge that all options remain open in the future. This is what the Central Bank of Norway has done this very week by raising its interest rates in line with economic normalisation. Arguing that financial conditions should be very favourable in the short term does not mean guaranteeing that they must remain so forever.    <\/p>\n<p>The ECB has already begun to fine-tune the pandemic asset purchase programme and maintains that this does not entail a change in the direction of interest rate policy. Although modest, it is a step towards normality. <\/p>\n<p><strong> <\/strong><strong>Jos\u00e9 Luis Mart\u00ednez Campuzano, spokesperson for the Spanish Banking Association<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/aebanca.es\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/09\/evitar-crear-incertidumbre.pdf\">Download the article<\/a><\/p>\n<p><strong> <\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>A track record of success in managing monetary policy does not justify forcing short-term financial stability, which is key to macroeconomic stability. That is why it is necessary to set the limits of monetary policy and ensure that the combination with the rest of policies\u2014from fiscal policy to supply-side measures\u2014is truly effective. Failing to do so would lead to economic imbalances and greater financial risks. Monetary policy should not create more problems tomorrow than it is trying to combat today.   <\/p>\n","protected":false},"featured_media":36344,"parent":0,"template":"","etiquetas":[295,328,312,334,327],"class_list":["post-38444","articulos","type-articulos","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","etiquetas-banco-central-europeo","etiquetas-bce","etiquetas-jose-luis-martinez","etiquetas-politica-monetaria","etiquetas-tipos-de-interes"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Avoid creating uncertainty<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/aebanca.es\/en\/actualidad\/te-interesa\/articulos\/avoid-creating-uncertainty\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Avoid creating uncertainty\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"A track record of success in managing monetary policy does not justify forcing short-term financial stability, which is key to macroeconomic stability. 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