The European Commission\u2019s Autumn Forecasts estimate growth of 0.8% in the euro area this year, with a slight acceleration from the 0.5% estimated for 2023, and are somewhat more positive for next year, projecting up to 1.3%. Even so, this is less than half the growth forecast by the IMF for advanced economies this year, and half a percentage point below what is estimated for 2025. <\/p>\n
What are the reasons for this lower relative growth in Europe? It is certainly not a financing problem. In fact, financing\u2014especially bank financing\u2014will be essential for European growth to accelerate and strengthen in the future. The Commission is counting on this. According to its forecasts, private consumption, in a context of disinflation, and European funds will be the drivers of the recovery in the near future. There will also be a moderate recovery in investment. <\/p>\n
Against this backdrop, familiar risks loom, from geopolitical tensions and their effects on energy security to the possibility that protectionist measures intensify. In addition to political uncertainty in some countries and the continued deterioration of competitiveness in a context of structural difficulties in sectors such as manufacturing. <\/p>\n
It is therefore clear that Europe needs to make decisions to accelerate growth and improve competitiveness. According to the Draghi Report, both objectives would be achieved through decisive measures to boost innovation, support the energy transition, improve skills and, above all, a clear strategy to eliminate rigidities and market fragmentation. Achieving this will require political determination, swift action, and also a great deal of money. <\/p>\n
Currently, more than 75% of financing for businesses and households in Europe comes from banks. The European banking sector is robust and prepared: it has successfully overcome the various turbulences experienced in recent months in international financial markets, even in an uncertain macroeconomic scenario, thanks to its solidity, liquidity position, and the measures taken since the financial crisis to strengthen its governance. In this way, they have become a barrier against instability in financial markets, contributing to building trust and establishing certainty. It is also worth remembering the guarantees this provides. <\/p>\n
Diversifying funding sources, with a determined push to create a single capital markets market, is desirable; but it may not be sufficient to achieve the stated objectives if, in parallel, the Banking Union is not completed. Large, international banks can optimize the use of capital and thus ensure that savings flow smoothly between countries. In addition, they can help energize and mobilize wholesale funding from financial markets, as is common in the United States. <\/p>\n
In this regard, the recommendations of the Draghi Report also cover the financial sector and are aimed at promoting cross-border mergers, simplifying regulation, and reducing bureaucracy to improve its competitiveness and capacity for innovation as well. Because improving the efficiency and competitiveness of banks is essential to advancing the competitiveness of the economy as a whole. Because the strength of the banking sector provides a sound and sustainable foundation for economic growth. <\/p>\n
We are speaking at the European level, but we can bring it down to the national level. In very immediate terms. Providing certainty to the banking sector is the best way to enhance its contribution to the economy as a whole, even more so in an environment as complex as today\u2019s. Setting new obstacles, creating greater hurdles, or introducing specific and additional taxes, as is happening in Spain, creates uncertainty that goes beyond the affected sector, especially when such measures depart from international norms and standard practice, at a time when attracting investment is key to continuing to create wealth. Because that is where banks can multiply their contribution to the country, attracting investment and facilitating the financing that underpins growth, job creation, and the generation of opportunities and well-being. That is precisely the value of the banking function. <\/p>\n